Anthony Pompliano on Bitcoin Market: Proof of „Ultimate Safe Haven“

Bitcoin has a zero correlation with stocks. Critics were wrong about their doubts about Bitcoin as a safe haven, according to Morgan Creek Digital co-founder.

Bitcoin ( BTC ) could „not be more uncorrelated“ with the stock market, according to Anthony Pompliano. Data shows that The News Spy is outperforming macro-assets.

In a series of tweets on October 26, the co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital, also known as „Pomp,“ poked fun at critics who claim Bitcoin is a poor store of value.

Pomp about the safe haven Bitcoin: „The market proves it“

Pompliano has uploaded a chart to the behavior analysis platform Santiment. This shows that Bitcoin reached the value 0 in the 30-day correlation with the S&P 500.

„It couldn’t be more uncorrelated than it is now,“ he said in comments.

Pompliano also stressed that Bitcoin has left macro-assets behind since the March crash this year.

„So how did Bitcoin fare during an economic downturn? It outperformed stocks, bonds, gold, oil, and just about anything else. It also had little to no correlation over a significant period of time,“ he summarized.

„Bitcoin is the ultimate safe haven and the market is proving it.“

The BTC / USD pair is trading at $ 13,150, offering investors around 83 percent year-to-date returns. This compares with 24 percent for gold and 6 percent for the S&P 500, according to data from on-chain monitoring website Skew.

Pompliano believes the earlier correlation between Bitcoin and these assets is merely a short-term phenomenon triggered by the March events.

„In liquidity crises, all wealth correlations tend toward 1. That was a passing thing and it happened with gold, stocks and others, too,“ he wrote.

No more correlation?

As Cointelegraph reported, there is consensus that not only is Bitcoin decoupling from stocks and others, but that it will be a definitive turning point that is irreversible.

Among other things, represents Willy Woo , the statistician and creator of the data resource Woobull this thesis. He continues to believe that Bitcoin will soon decouple.

„The decoupling is imminent,“ he tweeted last week .

„Makes sense that BTC will continue to be correlated in the short term; but not in the long term. BTC is a safe haven, only categorizing it as ‚risk‘ (meaning it is very new) distorts that fact.“

More investors are „HODLing“ Bitcoin in anticipation of a rising BTC market in 2021

Chain data shows a higher „HODLing“ among Bitcoin retail investors who expect a BTC rebound in Q1 2021.

New data shows that the current Bitcoin price action (BTC) shows higher levels of „HODLing“ (not spending or holding) than in previous bullish cycles.

According to chain analyst Willy Woo, an indicator called „reflexivity“ has been rising in recent months. Woo explained that the indicator measures the tendency of Bitcoin investors to maintain their BTC as the price rises. It is essentially an alternative way of measuring the HODLing activity of retail investors.

Bitcoin market capitalisation gain per dollar invested or reflexivity.
This next bull run may eclipse the previous cycle
There are several reasons why retail investors might hold onto their BTC even longer than in previous bullish cycles.

If Bitcoin experiences a run in 2021, most investors would see it as the post-halvary bullish rally. Historically, BTC rallies 12 to 15 months after each halving, recording a new all-time high at each opportunity. Based on BTC’s tendency to rally after halving, retail investors may be „HODLing“ as a strategy to avoid being left out if a strong sustained run begins.

Spanish lawmakers received Bitcoin in an attempt to promote the industry
Bitcoin has also shown a surprising level of resilience through multiple potential black swan events. After its initial spike following the pandemic-induced collapse in March, it has remained above USD 10,000 despite numerous negative events.

In more recent events, Bitcoin’s price plummeted after the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) accused BitMEX of violating the Bank Secrecy Act.

Yearn finance (YFI) gained 36% as DeFi tokens mimic Bitcoin’s upward trend
After the CFTC announcement, the BTC price fell below USD 10,500 but quickly recovered to the USD 10,700 support level. Woo explained:

„This (reflexivity) is the tendency for HODLers to hold on to their currencies more tightly as the price increases. I expected reflexivity to increase during the mania phase of bull markets, but it seems fairly constant since the last two cycles… this cycle is interesting; reflexivity is increasing rather than static compared to the last few cycles. Whilst we now need more capital invested to make a similar percentage price gain, the effect of HODLers holding on to currencies more tightly is magnifying the ’number increase‘ per dollar invested.
Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, industry executives believe that the U.S. presidential election could benefit Bitcoin and positive HODLing data could further boost BTC’s price.

U.S. Presidential Election and Q4 May Further Boost BTC Price
Industry executives and leading investors in the crypto industry anticipate that the upcoming presidential elections in November may benefit Bitcoin.

Crypto-banks will swallow up trust banks in 3 years, or even less
Su Zhu, the CEO of Three Arrows Capital, said a Democratic sweep would catalyze Bitcoin due to several macro factors and suggested that a second Trump term could also benefit Bitcoin. He wrote:

„Biden is extremely bullish for BTC because the Democratic blue wave could mark the beginning of an unprecedented installation of the MMT agenda with a corresponding weakening and deficit of the dollar. That said, Trump is also bullish.
As Cointelegraph reported earlier this week, traders, including Peter Brandt, believe that the higher time frame charts point to a strong upward trend for Bitcoin. The combination of favorable technical aspects, strengthening fundamentals, and increasing HODLing could drive a bullish run for BTC in 2021.